Dec. 7, 2024, 10:05 pm ET

Quick Brief

2-Minute Digest

Essential Context

Opposition forces have mounted their most significant offensive since Syria’s civil war began in 2011, reaching the outskirts of Damascus. This breakthrough comes after years of government control over the capital region.

Core Players

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – Leading insurgent group
• President Bashar al-Assad – Syrian leader since 2000
• Turkish military – Key supporter of opposition forces
• Syrian Army – Government forces facing territorial losses

Key Numbers

• 6 miles – Distance from insurgents to central Damascus
• 14 – Towns and villages captured in December
• 500,000+ – Total casualties since war began
• 3 million – Syrian refugees in neighboring countries

Full Depth

The Catalyst

The Syrian Army’s withdrawal from strategic positions in Southern Syria created an opportunity for opposition forces to advance rapidly toward Damascus.

Inside Forces

HTS leads a coalition of rebel groups that have successfully exploited gaps in government defenses. The government’s stretched military resources have limited its ability to respond effectively.

Power Dynamics

This offensive represents the most serious challenge to Assad’s control since 2018. The government’s authority is increasingly fragile as rebels consolidate their gains across multiple regions.

Outside Impact

Regional stability is at risk as the conflict intensifies. Turkey’s involvement and the potential for refugee movements could affect neighboring countries like Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq.

Future Forces

Key developments to watch:

• Potential government counteroffensive
• International diplomatic responses
• Refugee movements
• Regional security implications

Data Points

• Dec. 7, 2024: Insurgents reach Damascus suburbs
• Dec. 1-7, 2024: Capture of 14 strategic locations
• 2018: Previous rebel approach to Damascus
• 2011: Start of Syrian civil war