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• Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced she won’t seek reelection, ending her Senate career.
• Her decision avoids a complex three-way race in Arizona’s highly watched 2024 Senate election.
• Sinema’s departure highlights the challenges of bipartisanship in a polarized political landscape.

Quick Brief

2-Minute Digest

Essential Context

Kyrsten Sinema, the first openly bisexual person elected to the Senate, has decided not to run for a second term. This announcement follows her estrangement from the Democratic Party and her transition to an independent in late 2022. Sinema’s decision was influenced by the failure of a bipartisan bill she negotiated on border security and military aid, which was blocked by Senate Republicans.

Core Players

• Kyrsten Sinema – Independent U.S. Senator from Arizona
• Ruben Gallego – Democratic candidate vying for Sinema’s seat
• Kari Lake – Republican candidate vying for Sinema’s seat
• Arizona Democratic Party – Faced internal conflicts due to Sinema’s independent stance

Key Numbers

• $10.6 million – Sinema’s campaign bank account as of December 31, 2023
• 23 – Number of Senate seats Democrats must defend in 2024, including Sinema’s
• 10 – Number of Senate seats Republicans must defend in 2024
• 2018 – Year Sinema was first elected to the Senate

Full Depth

Complete Coverage

The Catalyst

“I love Arizona and I am so proud of what we’ve delivered,” Sinema said in her announcement. However, she noted that her approach to fostering compromise seems to be “a model of the past” in today’s polarized political climate.

The immediate trigger for her decision was the failure of a bipartisan bill on border security and military aid, which she had spent months negotiating.

Inside Forces

Sinema’s career in Congress was marked by her centrist approach and bipartisanship. She was a member of the Blue Dog Coalition and the Problem Solvers Caucus, which emphasized moderate and bipartisan lawmaking. However, her refusal to support key progressive priorities, such as abolishing the Senate filibuster and raising taxes on wealthy investors, alienated her from many in her former party.

Sinema’s transition to an independent in December 2022 further complicated her political standing, as Democrats feared she would split the left-of-center vote and allow a Republican to win.

Power Dynamics

Sinema’s influence in the Senate was significant, particularly in a 50-50 divided chamber where her vote was crucial. However, her independence and refusal to align strictly with either party reduced her power within traditional party structures.

Her departure marks another loss for centrist figures in the Senate, following similar announcements from Senators like Romney and Manchin.

Outside Impact

Sinema’s decision has broader implications for the 2024 Senate elections. The race for her seat is now between Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego and Republican candidate Kari Lake, with Republicans seeing an opportunity to secure a lasting Senate majority.

The outcome of this race could significantly impact the balance of power in the Senate, especially given that Democrats need to defend 23 seats, including Sinema’s, while Republicans only need to defend 10.

Future Forces

Looking ahead, the Arizona Senate race will be highly contested. Gallego and Lake will need to appeal to moderate voters who supported Sinema’s bipartisan approach. The election’s outcome could set a precedent for future political strategies in swing states.

Sinema’s legacy, marked by significant bipartisan achievements such as the infrastructure package and the same-sex marriage bill, will continue to influence legislative approaches in a divided Congress.

Data Points

• December 2022: Sinema leaves the Democratic Party to become an independent
• March 5, 2024: Sinema announces she will not seek reelection
• 2018: Sinema first elected to the Senate
• $10.6 million: Sinema’s campaign bank account as of December 31, 2023
• 23 Democratic seats vs. 10 Republican seats to defend in 2024