Instant Insight

30-Second Take

• The U.S. is on the brink of a significant decline in college-age students, a phenomenon known as the “enrollment cliff.”
• Lower birth rates during the Great Recession are the primary cause, leading to a projected 15% drop in 18-year-olds by 2029.
• This decline has far-reaching implications for higher education and the broader economy.

Quick Brief

2-Minute Digest

Essential Context

The “enrollment cliff” is a demographic shift resulting from lower birth rates during the Great Recession. This period, starting around 2008, saw a significant decrease in births, which will translate to fewer college-age students beginning in 2025.

Core Players

• Higher Education Institutions: Colleges and universities across the U.S.
• Demographers: Experts like Nathan Grawe who forecast demographic trends.
• Policy Makers: Government officials who will need to address the economic and educational implications.
• Economists: Analysts like Jeff Strohl and Catharine Bond Hill who study the economic impact.

Key Numbers

• 15%: Projected decline in the number of 18-year-olds by 2029.
• 576,000: Estimated number of students colleges will lose over four years starting in 2025.
• 650,000: Projected annual decline in 18-year-olds by 2039.
• 13%: Expected drop in high school graduates by 2041.

Full Depth

Complete Coverage

The Catalyst

The Great Recession, which began in 2008, led to a significant decrease in birth rates. This “birth dearth” will result in a substantial decline in the college-age population starting in 2025.

“Students are going to be a hot commodity, a scarce resource,” says Nathan Grawe, emphasizing the competitive landscape colleges will face.

Inside Forces

Colleges are already experiencing declining enrollments, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The drop in high school graduates will further strain institutions, especially those that are tuition-dependent.

Small, private colleges in the Northeast and Midwest, which have been experiencing population declines, will be particularly hard hit, with some regions seeing a drop of more than 15% in college-going populations through 2029.

Power Dynamics

The enrollment cliff gives students more bargaining power, with colleges admitting a larger proportion of their applicants. However, it also means colleges must become more competitive to attract students.

“The impact of this is economic decline,” notes Jeff Strohl, highlighting the broader economic implications of fewer graduates entering the workforce.

Outside Impact

The decline in college graduates will have a ripple effect on the economy, contributing to labor shortages and skills gaps. The U.S. is already falling behind other developed nations in terms of postsecondary education attainment.

Catharine Bond Hill emphasizes, “In an economy that depends on skilled labor, we’re falling short.” The U.S. has dropped to ninth among developed nations in the proportion of its 25-to-64-year-old population with any postsecondary degree.

Future Forces

Looking ahead, the enrollment cliff is expected to lead to more college closures, with potentially over 400,000 fewer college-bound students between 2025 and 2029. This could accelerate the pace of college closures, affecting local economies and job markets.

Forecasting indicates another potential drop in the number of 18-year-olds beginning in 2033, further exacerbating the issue.

Data Points

• 2025: Peak year for high school graduates before the decline starts.
• 2029: End of the initial four-year period seeing a 15% decline in 18-year-olds.
• 2031: Projected 5% drop in the number of new high school graduates nationwide.
• 2037: Forecasted 12% drop in high school graduates.
• 2039: Expected annual decline of 650,000 in 18-year-olds.