Instant Insight

30-Second Take

• Global political disruption intensifies in 2025, driven by economic and geopolitical instability.
• Rise of populist and far-right movements challenges traditional centrist parties worldwide.
• Key elections and political shifts in Austria, Canada, and Latin America highlight the trend.

Quick Brief

2-Minute Digest

Essential Context

The year 2025 is marked by a surge in global political disruption, fueled by economic challenges such as inflation and inequality, along with geopolitical instability. This environment has led to the rise of populist and far-right movements, posing significant challenges to traditional centrist parties.

Core Players

• Herbert Kickl – Leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in Austria.
• Justin Trudeau – Prime Minister of Canada facing potential election defeat.
• Pierre Poilievre – Conservative leader in Canada and Trudeau’s likely chief rival.
• President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. – President of the Philippines navigating internal political feuds.

Key Numbers

• 9-10: Number of senatorial positions President Marcos Jr.’s candidates could win in the Philippines’ 2025 election.
• Oct. 20, 2025: Constitutionally mandated deadline for the Canadian federal election.
• 2022: Year Vice President Sara Duterte ran as an ally to President Marcos Jr. in the Philippines.
• 6 years: Single term limit for Philippine presidents since the end of Ferdinand Marcos’ dictatorship in 1986.

Full Depth

Complete Coverage

The Catalyst

The economic and geopolitical upheavals of recent years have created a fertile ground for political dissatisfaction. The COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and mass displacement from conflicts have all contributed to this instability.

This climate has led to significant gains for far-right and populist movements globally.

Inside Forces

In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) has capitalized on widespread frustration with the previous coalition’s inability to address issues like inflation and immigration. Herbert Kickl, the leader of the FPO, has been tasked with forming a coalition government.

In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing mounting pressure and declining popularity, which may lead to the fall of his coalition government. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is poised to take advantage of this situation.

Power Dynamics

The political landscape in these countries is characterized by a shift away from traditional centrist parties. In Canada, the Conservative Party is leveraging public anger over high inflation and other material shortcomings to gain ground against Trudeau’s Liberal Party.

In the Philippines, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is consolidating power amid a feud with Vice President Sara Duterte, which could significantly impact the balance of power in the country.

Outside Impact

The rise of populist and far-right movements has broader implications for global stability and governance. These movements often prioritize national interests over international cooperation, which can lead to increased geopolitical tensions.

The economic policies of these new governments could also have far-reaching effects, such as shifts in trade policies and social welfare programs.

Future Forces

As 2025 unfolds, incumbent governments will need to navigate an increasingly polarized and fragmented political landscape. This will require addressing underlying grievances driving voter discontent and potentially re-evaluating policy priorities.

Data Points

• 2025: Year of significant global political disruption.
• 1986: End of Ferdinand Marcos’ dictatorship in the Philippines.
• 2022: Year of the Philippine presidential election where Marcos Jr. and Duterte ran as allies.
• Oct. 20, 2025: Potential date for the Canadian federal election.