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• Guatemala has agreed to a new migrant deportation deal with the U.S., increasing deportee flights by 40%.
• The deal includes deporting migrants from other nationalities at U.S. expense.
• This agreement is part of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Central America trip focused on immigration.

Quick Brief

2-Minute Digest

Essential Context

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo announced a new deportation agreement with the U.S., marking the second such deal secured by Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his Central America trip. This agreement aims to address the challenges in deporting migrants who are in the U.S. illegally, as not all can be easily sent back to their home countries.

Core Players

• Bernardo Arévalo – President of Guatemala
• Marco Rubio – U.S. Secretary of State
• Donald Trump – President of the United States
• U.S. Department of State and Department of Homeland Security

Key Numbers

• 40% – Increase in the number of flights for deportees
• 7-8 – Average weekly flights of Guatemalan citizens from the U.S. previously
• 114 million – Potential doses of fentanyl from intercepted precursors since late November
• 127.5 kg (280 pounds) – Total weight of fentanyl precursors intercepted

Full Depth

Complete Coverage

The Catalyst

“We have agreed to increase by 40% the number of flights of deportees both of our nationality as well as deportees from other nationalities,” Arévalo said during a news conference with Rubio. This announcement is part of a broader effort to tackle immigration challenges.

The move is significant as it helps the Trump administration address the issue of deporting migrants who cannot be easily sent back to their home countries, such as those from Venezuela.

Inside Forces

The agreement reflects the ongoing focus on immigration enforcement by the Trump administration. Previously, under both the Trump and Biden administrations, Guatemala had been accepting an average of seven to eight flights of its citizens from the U.S. per week.

Rubio’s Central America trip highlights the importance of regional cooperation in managing migration flows.

Power Dynamics

The deal showcases the influence of the U.S. in negotiating deportation agreements with Central American countries. El Salvador has also announced a similar agreement, further indicating the region’s willingness to collaborate with U.S. immigration policies.

Rubio’s role in securing these agreements underscores his commitment to addressing immigration issues through diplomatic means.

Outside Impact

The broader implications include the potential to ease deportation challenges for the U.S., especially for migrants from countries like Venezuela, where deportations have been difficult. This could lead to more efficient immigration enforcement.

However, there are also concerns about the legal and ethical implications of deporting migrants to third countries, particularly if it involves American citizens or legal residents.

Future Forces

Looking ahead, these agreements may pave the way for more comprehensive immigration reforms. Guatemala is also planning to enhance its border security with the formation of a new border security force to combat transnational crime.

Rubio has emphasized the importance of development in reducing migration, with a high-level Guatemalan delegation set to visit Washington to discuss economic development strategies.

Data Points

• Feb. 6, 2025: Guatemala announces the new deportation deal.
• Late November 2024: Guatemala intercepts fentanyl precursors totaling 127.5 kg (280 pounds).
• Upcoming weeks: High-level Guatemalan delegation to visit Washington for economic development talks.
• 2023: U.S. dismantles the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), with Rubio issuing waivers to continue key programs.