Instant Insight

30-Second Take

• A new poll shows Americans across the political spectrum support increasing Medicaid funding, contrary to Republican plans for deep cuts.
• The House-passed Republican reconciliation bill aims to cut Medicaid and CHIP spending by $863.4 billion over the next decade.
• These cuts could result in 7.8 million more people losing Medicaid coverage by 2034.

Quick Brief

2-Minute Digest

Essential Context

Despite growing public support for Medicaid, Republicans have advanced a budget reconciliation bill that includes significant cuts to the program. A recent poll by the health research organization KFF indicates that Americans from all political backgrounds favor increased funding for Medicaid, not reductions.

Core Players

• House Republicans – Proponents of the budget reconciliation bill.
• KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) – Conducted the poll showing public support for Medicaid.
• Congressional Budget Office (CBO) – Provided estimates on the impact of the proposed cuts.

Key Numbers

• $863.4 billion – Projected cuts to Medicaid and CHIP spending over the next decade.
• 7.8 million – Estimated number of people who could lose Medicaid coverage by 2034.
• 10.9 million – Total number of uninsured individuals expected to increase by 2034, including those affected by ACA marketplace cuts.
• 29% – Percentage of state-financed Medicaid spending per resident that the federal cuts represent.

Full Depth

Complete Coverage

The Catalyst

The House-passed Republican reconciliation bill, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (H.R. 1), was voted in on May 22, 2025, with a narrow margin of 215-214. This bill includes multiple provisions aimed at reducing Medicaid and CHIP spending significantly.

A new poll from KFF highlights the public’s strong support for Medicaid, contrasting sharply with the Republican plans to cut the program.

Inside Forces

Internal Republican dynamics are complex, with some lawmakers expressing concerns about the political backlash of cutting Medicaid. Despite these concerns, the bill moves forward with provisions that would make it harder for individuals to qualify and stay on Medicaid.

For example, one major change requires adults under 65 to work, volunteer, or attend school for at least 80 hours a month to qualify for Medicaid.

Power Dynamics

The power to shape Medicaid’s future lies with Congress, particularly with House Republicans who are driving these cuts. However, public opinion and potential political repercussions could influence the final outcome.

Republican lawmakers argue that these cuts are necessary to address “waste, fraud, and abuse” in the program, but critics see these measures as harmful to vulnerable populations.

Outside Impact

The broader implications of these cuts are significant. If implemented, they would not only increase the number of uninsured individuals but also strain state budgets, as Medicaid is a critical component of state healthcare spending.

Academic studies have shown that Medicaid cuts can have deadly consequences, emphasizing the importance of maintaining or expanding the program rather than reducing it.

Future Forces

Looking ahead, the fate of Medicaid will depend on the Senate’s actions and potential negotiations. Public pressure and advocacy groups may also play a crucial role in shaping the final legislation.

Key areas to watch include the Senate’s response to the House bill and any amendments or alternatives they might propose.

Data Points

• May 22, 2025: House Republicans pass the budget reconciliation bill.
• June 4, 2025: CBO releases updated estimates on the impact of the Medicaid and CHIP provisions.
• $800 billion: Estimated savings over 10 years from the proposed cuts.
• 7.6 million: Number of people who could lose Medicaid benefits specifically.
• 1 million: Number of people who could lose health coverage from ACA marketplace plans.