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- 86% of Americans report stress over grocery costs, with low-income households bearing the heaviest burden
- Despite slowing inflation rates, consumers remain fixated on absolute price levels up 27% since 2020
- USDA forecasts 2.2% food inflation for 2025 as households continue making difficult dietary trade-offs
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Quick Brief
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Essential Context
A new AP-NORC poll reveals that 86% of U.S. adults experience stress when buying groceries, with only 14% reporting no stress. This widespread anxiety persists despite slowing inflation rates, as consumers remain focused on the cumulative price increases that have reshaped household budgets since the pandemic.
Core Players
- U.S. Consumers – 1,200 surveyed nationwide in Purdue’s Consumer Food Insights Report
- USDA Economic Research Service – Tracks and forecasts food price trends
- Federal Reserve – Monitors inflation and sets monetary policy
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve – Analyzes consumer inflation expectations
Key Numbers
- 86% – Percentage of Americans stressed by grocery costs (AP-NORC poll)
- 5.1 – Average stress rating on 0-10 scale (Purdue survey)
- 27% – Cumulative grocery price increase since 2020
- 2.2% – USDA’s 2025 food inflation forecast
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The Catalyst
“The big change in price level between 2021 and 2023 still has consumers mired in an inflationary state of mind,” notes Minneapolis Fed analysis.
Recent USDA data shows grocery prices have stabilized but remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, creating persistent financial pressure.
Inside Forces
Low- and middle-income households earning under $75,000 annually report average stress ratings near 6 on the 10-point scale.
High-income households still feel pressure but report average stress levels around 4, revealing how inflation impacts different economic groups unevenly.
Power Dynamics
Consumers increasingly view grocery prices as their top economic concern despite slowing inflation rates.
Food-at-home prices have risen 0.2% from May to June 2025, continuing a pattern of modest monthly increases that add up to significant long-term impacts.
Outside Impact
Many families now face heartbreaking choices between nutritious meals and other essentials as fresh produce becomes a luxury.
Household budgets remain tighter after cumulative price increases, heightening the pain of even small additional price hikes.
Future Forces
USDA predicts food-at-home prices will increase 2.2% in 2025, below the 20-year historical average of 2.6%.
- Trade pattern shifts could accelerate or moderate food price trends
- Weather events and disease outbreaks remain wild cards for food production
- Labor market conditions will continue influencing food service pricing
- Energy prices remain closely tied to food transportation and production costs
Data Points
- 2020-2023: Period of most significant grocery price increases
- Summer 2022: Peak inflation when grocery price increases began slowing
- 3.3%: Recent grocery price increase outpacing historical averages for low-income families
- 95%: Percentage of income some low-income households spend on basic necessities
- 2025: Current year with food inflation forecast at 2.2%
The disconnect between slowing inflation rates and persistent consumer stress highlights how economic perceptions often differ from technical measurements. As households adjust to permanently higher price levels, policymakers face the challenge of addressing both the reality and perception of grocery affordability in America.
