Instant Insight

30-Second Take

• A significant majority of Canadians are avoiding travel to the U.S. due to heightened political tensions and new travel policies.
• Only 9% of Canadians plan to visit the U.S. in 2025, a sharp decline from previous years.
• New U.S. registration requirements for long-term stays are adding to the deterrents for Canadian travelers.

Quick Brief

2-Minute Digest

Essential Context

The relationship between Canada and the U.S. has become increasingly strained, driven by political tensions, tariffs, and recent policy changes. This has led to a substantial decrease in Canadian travel to the U.S., with many opting for domestic or European destinations instead.

Core Players

• Canadian travelers, particularly “snowbirds” who traditionally spend winters in the U.S.
• U.S. government, under the influence of policies initiated by President Trump.
• Canadian tourism boards and local businesses benefiting from increased domestic travel.

Key Numbers

• 62% of Canadians plan to avoid the U.S. for at least the next year.
• 9% of Canadians intend to visit the U.S. in 2025.
• 44% of Canadians plan to travel to provinces outside their home province.
• 22% of Canadians plan to visit Europe, especially those aged 18-29.

Full Depth

Complete Coverage

The Catalyst

The current political climate, exacerbated by President Trump’s policies, including tariffs and the threat of annexation, has significantly impacted Canadian travel decisions. This tension has fueled a surge in Canadian patriotism, leading many to choose domestic travel over U.S. destinations.

“The situation has made the U.S. a less attractive travel destination,” according to recent surveys, with 66% of Canadians expressing this sentiment.

Inside Forces

The new U.S. travel policy requiring foreign nationals, including Canadians, to register if they stay for more than 30 days has added another layer of complexity. This policy, part of Trump’s “Protecting the American People Against Invasion” executive order, is set to take effect in April 2025.

This registration requirement is particularly burdensome for Canadian “snowbirds” who spend extended periods in the U.S. during winter months.

Power Dynamics

The perception of Trump and his policies plays a significant role in these travel decisions. Among Canadians with a negative opinion of Trump, 86% stated that the current political climate has made the U.S. less appealing, with 59% actively avoiding travel to the U.S.

Older Canadians, especially those aged 60+, are more likely to find U.S. travel less appealing due to these political concerns.

Outside Impact

The decline in Canadian travel to the U.S. has broader economic implications. Local businesses and tourism boards in Canada are seeing an increase in domestic travel, which could boost the Canadian economy. However, the U.S. economy may suffer from reduced Canadian tourism.

Immigration lawyers warn that the new registration policy could further strain the already fragile relationship between the two countries, potentially deterring more Canadians from visiting the U.S.

Future Forces

Looking ahead, the trend of avoiding U.S. travel is likely to continue unless there is a significant improvement in Canada-U.S. relations. Canadians are increasingly opting for domestic or European travel, which could become a long-term shift.

Key areas to watch include how the new registration policy affects long-term stays and how Canadian tourism boards and local businesses capitalize on the increased domestic travel.

Data Points

• March 7, 2025: Data reveals 62% of Canadians plan to avoid the U.S. for at least the next year.
• April 11, 2025: New U.S. registration policy for foreign nationals staying over 30 days is set to take effect.
• 48% of Canadians cite concerns about the political climate or leadership as reasons for avoiding U.S. travel.
• 43% express a preference for supporting Canadian businesses and destinations.
• 20% of Canadians do not plan to travel at all in 2025.