Instant Insight

30-Second Take

• Democrats are drawing lessons from the 2018 midterms to counter President Trump’s second presidency.
• Successful models from 2018 are being applied in the 2025 governor’s races.
• Special elections in 2025 show strong Democratic performance, mirroring 2018 trends.

Quick Brief

2-Minute Digest

Essential Context

As Democrats navigate the early months of President Trump’s second presidency, they are revisiting strategies that proved successful in the 2018 midterms. The focus is on finding the right messages and messengers to counter the administration’s aggressive stance.

Core Players

• Democratic Party – Seeking to retake the House in 2026.
• Donald Trump – President, whose policies and actions are central to Democratic strategies.
• State and local Democratic candidates – Implementing successful 2018 models in current races.

Key Numbers

• 10 percentage points – Average margin by which Democratic candidates outperformed Harris’s margin vs President Trump in 2025 special elections.
• 14 – Number of contested special elections in state house districts in 2025.
• 25 points – Margin by which Democrats beat Republican candidates in some Iowa House and Senate districts.
• 11 points – Average margin by which Democrats outperformed Hillary Clinton’s margin vs President Trump in 2017 special elections.

Full Depth

Complete Coverage

The Catalyst

The 2018 midterm elections, where Democrats regained control of the House, serve as a blueprint for current strategies. The success in those elections was largely due to strong performances in suburban areas and among key demographic groups like women, young people, and nonwhite voters.

This historical context is crucial as Democrats prepare for the 2026 midterms, aiming to retake the House amidst a potentially chaotic primary season.

Inside Forces

Democrats are leveraging the momentum from special elections in 2025, which have shown significant swings in their favor. These elections have mirrored the trends seen in 2017, where Democratic candidates outperformed expectations by an average of 11 percentage points.

The party is also focusing on refining their messages and identifying effective messengers, lessons learned from the 2018 campaigns.

Power Dynamics

The Democratic Party’s ability to adapt and apply successful strategies from 2018 is a key factor in their current efforts. This includes targeting historically Republican suburbs and mobilizing core voter groups.

However, the party faces challenges such as a potentially messy and expensive primary season in 2026, which could impact their overall performance.

Outside Impact

The broader implications of these strategies extend beyond the 2026 midterms. A strong Democratic performance could set the stage for future elections and influence policy debates at both state and federal levels.

Additionally, the success or failure of these strategies will be closely watched by other political parties and interest groups, shaping the political landscape for years to come.

Future Forces

Looking ahead, the 2026 midterms will be a critical test for Democratic strategies. Key areas to watch include:

• Primary season dynamics and their impact on general election readiness.
• Performance in suburban and swing districts.
• Mobilization of key demographic groups.
• Effectiveness of refined messages and messengers.

Data Points

• 2018: Democrats regain control of the House with significant margins among key voter groups.
• 2025: Special elections show strong Democratic performance, averaging a 10 percentage point margin over Harris’s 2024 performance.
• 2026: Midterm elections where Democrats aim to retake the House amidst potentially chaotic primaries.
• 67: Number of state legislative special elections held in 2017, showing an 11-point swing in favor of Democrats.