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• The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is under fire from Republicans over its assessment of the GOP’s 2025 reconciliation bill.
• The CBO estimates the bill could add $2.4 trillion to the deficit and reduce health insurance coverage by 10.9 million people.
• Republicans, including President Trump, are criticizing the CBO’s findings, questioning its methodology and impartiality.

Quick Brief

2-Minute Digest

Essential Context

The CBO, a nonpartisan agency, has released its analysis of the 2025 reconciliation bill, which includes significant changes to federal health care programs and budgetary policies. The report indicates that the bill would increase primary budget deficits by $2.4 trillion through FY 2034 and reduce health insurance coverage substantially.

Core Players

• Congressional Budget Office (CBO) – Nonpartisan agency providing budget and economic analyses.
• Republican Party – Critics of the CBO’s assessment, including President Trump.
• House and Senate – Legislative bodies involved in the reconciliation bill process.
• White House – Involved in defending the bill against CBO criticisms.

Key Numbers

• $2.4 trillion – Projected increase in primary budget deficits through FY 2034.
• 10.9 million – Number of people expected to lose health insurance coverage.
• $1 trillion – Reduction in spending on federal health care programs.
• $1.7 trillion – Gross savings from the bill’s provisions.
• $551 billion – Higher interest costs due to additional borrowing.

Full Depth

Complete Coverage

The Catalyst

The CBO’s analysis of the 2025 reconciliation bill has sparked intense criticism from Republicans. The bill, which aims to reduce budget deficits, has been assessed to have the opposite effect, according to the CBO.

“The CBO is flat wrong,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, reflecting the Republican stance against the CBO’s findings.

Inside Forces

The CBO’s report highlights significant reductions in health insurance coverage and federal health care spending. These changes are comparable in magnitude to the impacts of the 2017 ACA repeal bills.

The agency’s methodology and impartiality are under scrutiny, with some Republicans arguing that the CBO underestimates revenue growth and overestimates costs.

Power Dynamics

The White House and Republican leaders have launched a preemptive campaign to discredit the CBO’s findings. White House Budget Director Russ Vought argued that the CBO’s accounting methods are flawed.

“Our One Big Beautiful Bill will REDUCE the deficit WHILE delivering on the mandate given to us by the American people,” stated House Speaker Johnson, reflecting the administration’s stance.

Outside Impact

The CBO’s report has broader implications for the health care system and the national budget. The projected increase in deficits and reduction in health coverage could affect millions of Americans.

Market reactions and public opinion are also significant, with some expressing concern over the potential consequences of the bill.

Future Forces

Looking ahead, the bill’s fate will depend on how these criticisms are addressed in the legislative process. The Senate will need to consider the CBO’s findings and the Republican Party’s responses.

Potential areas of reform include adjustments to the bill’s provisions to align with the CBO’s estimates and mitigate the projected impacts on health care and the budget.

Data Points

• June 4, 2025: CBO releases its complete score of the reconciliation bill.
• May 13, 2025: Tariff increases implemented, affecting budgetary and economic analyses.
• 2017: ACA repeal bills considered by Congress, used as a comparison for the current bill’s impacts.
• $3.3 trillion: Maximum primary deficit increases allowed by the FY 2025 budget resolution.
• $2.8 trillion: Projected reduction in budget deficits from the administration’s tariffs over the next decade.