Instant Insight

30-Second Take

• The Senate version of Trump’s budget bill includes significant cuts to Medicaid, affecting low-income and disabled Americans.
• Proposed changes include work requirements for able-bodied adults and more frequent eligibility checks.
• The bill also reduces federal funding for Medicaid by limiting state-directed payments and lowering provider taxes.

Quick Brief

2-Minute Digest

Essential Context

The Senate’s version of Trump’s budget bill, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” introduces substantial cuts to Medicaid, a program providing health care to low-income and disabled Americans. These cuts are part of a broader effort to fund tax cuts and other initiatives.

Core Players

• Donald Trump – President Trump and key proponent of the bill.
• Senate Republicans – Led by Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), they are driving the bill through the Senate.
• Medicaid Recipients – Low-income and disabled individuals who rely on Medicaid for health care.
• State Governments – Will be impacted by changes in Medicaid funding and regulations.

Key Numbers

• 60,000+ – Estimated number of Wisconsinites who could lose Medicaid coverage due to the bill.
• 6% to 3.5% – Proposed reduction in Medicaid provider taxes by 2032.
• $1.5B – Potential annual savings from reducing Medicaid provider taxes.
• 2025 – Year the Senate is debating the bill.

Full Depth

Complete Coverage

The Catalyst

The Senate’s version of the budget bill aims to extend expiring tax cuts and create new ones, necessitating significant spending reductions. Medicaid, a critical health care program, is one of the areas targeted for cuts.

This move is part of a larger strategy to balance the budget and fund other legislative priorities.

Inside Forces

The Senate parliamentarian has played a crucial role in shaping the bill, determining which provisions comply with Senate rules. For instance, the parliamentarian ruled that cutting federal funds to states providing health care to undocumented immigrants and banning Medicaid coverage for gender transition services are not compliant.

Internal dynamics within the Senate have also led to adjustments, such as delaying the timeline for reducing provider taxes by one year.

Power Dynamics

Senate Republicans hold significant power in pushing this bill forward, despite opposition from Democrats. The bill’s passage is contingent on Republican unity and the ability to navigate Senate rules.

The Senate’s rulekeeper, the parliamentarian, has substantial influence over what provisions can be included under the reconciliation process.

Outside Impact

The proposed cuts to Medicaid could have far-reaching implications, including tens of thousands of Americans losing health coverage. Rural hospitals, which often rely on Medicaid funding, are also at risk.

States that have used their own funding to provide health coverage to undocumented immigrants may see reduced federal support.

Future Forces

The bill’s future is uncertain as it faces intense debate and potential amendments. If passed, it could set a precedent for future health care policy changes.

Key areas to watch include the finalization of provider tax reductions, the implementation of work requirements, and the impact on state-directed payments.

Data Points

• May 2025 – The House passed its version of the bill.
• June 2025 – The Senate began debating its version of the bill.
• 2032 – Target year for reducing Medicaid provider taxes to 3.5%.
• July 4, 2025 – Initial target date for signing the bill, though this deadline has been relaxed.