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- Violence flared in Homs as Alawite minority protests turned deadly, jeopardizing Syria’s fragile peace.
- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-controlled security forces implemented strict security measures, including curfews.
- Tensions escalated due to clashes between the new security forces and pro-Assad fighters.
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Essential Context
New security forces in Homs, Syria, increased their presence on Thursday, December 26, 2024. This followed violent protests by the Alawite minority on Wednesday. The unrest threatens the country’s already unstable peace.
Overview paragraph
Initially peaceful protests turned violent. Individuals linked to Bashar Assad’s former government opened fire on both protesters and security forces. This violence caused injuries. Security forces then imposed a curfew and established checkpoints to regain control.
Core Players
- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): A former insurgent group now in control of Homs’s security forces.
- Alaa Amran: The newly appointed police chief of Homs.
- Mohammad Ali Hajj Younes: A local electrician who witnessed the clashes.
- Bashar Assad: The former president of Syria, ousted in December 2024.
- Shujaa al-Ali: A pro-Iran fighter leading supporters of the former Assad regime.
Key Numbers
- 14: Security personnel killed in a pro-Assad militant attack near Tartous.
- 10: Security personnel injured in the same attack.
- 3: Assailants killed during the attack on security forces.
- 2 & 10: Security personnel killed and injured, respectively, in Balqasah clashes.
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The Catalyst
An online video showing the vandalism of an Alawite shrine in Aleppo ignited the protests. Although officials said the video was old, it triggered immediate anger among Homs’s Alawite population.
The protests started in Freedom Square, previously named after Hafez Assad. A statue of the former leader was vandalized, further escalating tensions.
Inside Forces
Homs has a diverse population, including Sunni and Shia Muslims, Alawites, and Christians. Maintaining order is difficult for the new HTS security forces. Many civilians and non-state groups possess weapons.
Security forces established checkpoints throughout Homs. They are checking IDs and searching vehicles for weapons. Armed groups also blocked roads to the square. There were even reports of uneasy coordination among different armed factions.
Power Dynamics
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) holds significant power. They control the security forces and are actively combating remnants of Assad’s regime.
Pro-Assad militants remain a threat. External support aims to destabilize the country. The recent fall of Bashar Assad on December 8, 2024, brought significant change. However, it also created new security challenges. Homs, with its historically mixed population, remains a hotspot for sectarian tensions.
The Transitional Government is struggling. It’s working to unite the country and build a national army.
Outside Impact
The violence is concerning. There’s a risk that Syria’s relative calm since Assad’s ousting could devolve into sectarian conflict.
External backers of pro-Assad groups are fueling instability.
These clashes highlight the difficulty of rebuilding a stable Syria after nearly 14 years of civil war. The U.S. has opened direct talks with Syrian rebels following Assad’s fall, signaling a shift in international engagement.
Future Forces
Recruitment for security forces is underway, but current numbers are insufficient for full control.
Former rebel groups are expected to merge into a national army. The timeline and potential for internal conflict are uncertain.
Expect continued raids against Assad’s remaining militias.
The ability of the new security forces to maintain order in the coming days is critical. Preventing further violence is paramount.
Integrating various rebel groups into a unified national army is essential for long-term stability.
Data Points
- December 8, 2024: Bashar Assad fled Syria as anti-government forces advanced.
- December 26, 2024: Alawite protests in Homs turned violent.
- 14: Security personnel died in the Tartous area attack on December 26, 2024.
- 10: Security personnel were wounded in the same attack.
- Nearly 14 years: The length of the Syrian civil war.
“The people who instigated the violence are the same shabiha who used to come into my shop and rob me, and I couldn’t say anything,” stated Mohammad Ali Hajj Younes, a Homs electrician.
Ahmad al-Bayyaa, an Alawite resident, commented, “From what happened yesterday, it’s clear that some people want to take the country backwards to the worst days of the country’s civil war, and no one wants to go back 14 years.”
The recent fall of Bashar Assad on December 8, 2024, brought significant change. However, it also created new security challenges. Homs, with its historically mixed population, remains a hotspot for sectarian tensions.
