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- Russian officials see an opportunity in President Trump’s eagerness to end the Ukraine war to secure favorable terms.
- Recent US-Russia talks in Riyadh focused on Ukraine, bilateral relations, and potential improvements in US-Russia ties.
- Moscow seeks significant concessions, including territorial recognition and sanctions relief, in exchange for a peace deal.
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Essential Context
In a significant diplomatic development, senior US and Russian officials held marathon talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 18, 2025. These discussions centered around ending the war in Ukraine and improving bilateral relations between the two nations. Russian officials are capitalizing on President Trump’s urgency to secure a quick peace deal to gain maximum benefits for Moscow.
Core Players
- Trump – President of the United States
- Vladimir Putin – President of Russia
- Sergey Lavrov – Russian Foreign Minister
- Marco Rubio – US Secretary of State
- Volodymyr Zelensky – President of Ukraine
Key Numbers
- $6 billion – Russian foreign currency reserves blocked by the US since the invasion.
- 4.5 hours – Duration of the bilateral talks between US and Russian delegations in Riyadh.
- 3 years – Duration of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine.
- 67% – Russian public support for the war in Ukraine, according to a recent poll.
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The Catalyst
President Trump’s recent inauguration and his expressed desire for quick foreign policy victories have created a new dynamic in US-Russia relations. This eagerness has prompted Russian officials to push for a peace deal in Ukraine on terms highly favorable to Moscow.
“The Americans will be strung along with talk about a potential reassessment of Moscow’s relationship with Beijing,” said former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, indicating a potential bargaining chip in the negotiations.
Inside Forces
Russian officials have been instructed to maintain a flexible yet tough stance in negotiations. Putin has directed his envoys to demonstrate a friendly attitude towards their American counterparts to maximize benefits. Key figures like Sergei Naryshkin, Sergei Ryabkov, and Mikhail Bogdanov are expected to play significant roles in these negotiations.
The Kremlin aims to restore full bilateral dialogue with Washington, including the revival of frozen communication channels on issues like arms control and strategic stability.
Power Dynamics
The relationship between Trump and Putin is seen as crucial by the Kremlin. Russian officials believe the personal chemistry between the two leaders could work in Moscow’s favor. Historically, Trump has been known for seeking symbolic foreign policy victories, which Moscow hopes to leverage.
The US side, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is determined to address the Ukraine issue but faces the challenge of balancing quick resolution with careful consideration of the details.
Outside Impact
The outcome of these negotiations has broader implications for global security and relations. Moscow’s demands include the recognition of Crimea and several eastern Ukrainian regions as Russian territory, Ukraine’s non-aligned status, and a drastic reduction of Ukraine’s military forces. These terms could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape in Europe.
Additionally, the talks involve discussions on partial sanctions relief, including lifting restrictions on specific Russian officials and unfreezing Russian assets, which could ease economic pressures on Russia.
Future Forces
The success of these negotiations is uncertain and depends on the willingness of both parties to compromise. Experts warn that Trump’s rapid “blitz” approach to resolving complex conflicts may not yield the desired results. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has emphasized the importance of US military assistance and detailed plans for Ukraine’s reconstruction, which could influence future negotiations.
Looking ahead, the normalization of US-Russia relations could also impact other global issues, such as arms control and counterterrorism cooperation.
Data Points
- February 18, 2025: US-Russia talks held in Riyadh.
- February 24, 2022: Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- 2022: Roman Abramovich was involved in peace talks but is unlikely to play a role this time.
- Late 2016: The Obama administration seized Russian diplomatic compounds in Maryland and New York.
The ongoing negotiations between the US and Russia highlight the complex and delicate nature of international diplomacy. As these talks progress, the world watches closely, aware that the outcomes will have far-reaching consequences for global security, economic stability, and the future of Ukraine.
