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- President Donald Trump has withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement for the second time, aligning the country with Iran, Libya, and Yemen as the only nations outside the accord.
- This move is part of a broader set of executive actions aimed at reversing Biden-era climate policies and promoting fossil fuel development.
- The withdrawal process will take a year, during which the U.S. will continue to be part of the Paris Agreement until January 2026.
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Essential Context
On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, a move that replicates his first-term action in 2017. This decision follows his campaign pledges to “drill, baby drill” for oil and gas and opposes renewable energy initiatives, particularly offshore wind projects.
Core Players
- Donald Trump – President of the United States
- Joe Biden – Former President who rejoined the Paris Agreement in 2021
- António Guterres – UN Secretary-General who warned of the repercussions of a U.S. withdrawal
- Gavin Newsom – Governor of California who criticized Trump’s climate actions
Key Numbers
- 2015: The year the Paris Agreement was signed by 196 countries.
- 2017: Trump’s first withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
- 2021: The year the U.S. rejoined the Paris Agreement under President Biden.
- 61-66%: The U.S. emission reduction target by 2035 set by the Biden administration.
- 1 year: The time it will take for the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement to become effective.
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The Catalyst
“I’m immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off,” Trump said during his inaugural rally. This announcement was anticipated given Trump’s previous stance on climate change and his campaign promises.
This move is part of a broader strategy to reverse many of the Biden-era environmental regulations and promote fossil fuel development.
Inside Forces
Trump’s decision reflects his long-standing skepticism about climate change, which he has referred to as a “scam.” His administration is expected to roll back several key emission-cutting regulations and halt approvals for wind energy projects.
The move also aligns with his “drill, baby drill” campaign slogan, indicating a strong push for oil and gas production despite the country already being the world’s largest oil producer.
Power Dynamics
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement places the U.S. in a unique position among global nations. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has warned that this move could severely undermine global efforts to combat climate change.
Domestically, the decision faces strong opposition from Democratic leaders and environmental groups, such as Governor Gavin Newsom of California, who have vowed to continue adhering to the principles of the Paris Agreement.
Outside Impact
The global impact of the U.S. withdrawal is significant. It may embolden other nations, like Saudi Arabia, to be more strident in their defense of fossil fuels. The EU, China, and India, however, are likely to maintain or even increase their climate ambitions despite the U.S. withdrawal.
The move also affects international climate finance, as the U.S. will no longer be required to report its greenhouse gas emissions or provide financial support to developing countries for clean energy and adaptation efforts.
Future Forces
The withdrawal process will take a year, giving room for diplomatic efforts and potential changes in U.S. policy if there is a future administration change. The Biden administration’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets, aiming for a 61-66% reduction in emissions by 2035, are now at risk.
Analysts predict that even if the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) subsidies remain intact, the rollback of other regulations could reduce the U.S. emission reduction targets to between 31-51% by 2035.
Data Points
- 2°C (3.6°F): The maximum global temperature increase limit set by the Paris Agreement.
- 1.5°C: The more ambitious target to limit global warming.
- 330,000: New jobs created in clean energy under the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.
- 670,000: New construction jobs created under the same acts.
- 2026: The year the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will be effective.
The decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement marks a significant shift in U.S. climate policy and has far-reaching implications for global climate action. As the world grapples with the increasing threats of climate change, the U.S. withdrawal could embolden other nations to reevaluate their own commitments.
