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- New Pew Research Center data indicates that even if all eligible voters had cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump would still have emerged victorious.
- The study reveals that non-voters were almost evenly split between Trump and Kamala Harris, contrasting with historical trends where Democrats typically held an edge among non-voters.
- Trump’s performance among Latino and Black voters was significantly stronger than in previous elections, contributing to his win.
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Quick Brief
2-Minute Digest
Essential Context
The 2024 presidential election saw a high voter turnout, with 64% of the eligible voting population casting ballots, the second highest in 120 years. Despite this, new data from the Pew Research Center show that Trump’s victory would have remained intact even if all eligible voters had participated.
Core Players
- Donald Trump – President Trump and 2024 Republican candidate
- Kamala Harris – Former Vice President and 2024 Democratic candidate
- Pew Research Center – Conducted the validated voter study
Key Numbers
- 64% – Voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election
- 44% – Percentage of non-voters who would have supported Trump
- 40% – Percentage of non-voters who would have supported Harris
- 48% – Percentage of Latino voters who supported Trump
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The Catalyst
The Pew Research Center’s validated voter study, which matches survey respondents to voter files, provides a detailed look at the voting patterns and turnout in the 2024 election. This study is crucial for understanding the electoral dynamics that led to Trump’s victory.
This analysis is particularly significant because it challenges the long-held assumption that higher voter turnout would favor Democratic candidates.
Inside Forces
Trump’s campaign managed to attract a more racially and ethnically diverse coalition compared to previous elections. He drew nearly even with Harris among Hispanic voters, losing by only 3 points, and also gained support among Black voters.
This shift in voting patterns is a departure from historical trends where Democrats generally performed better among these demographic groups.
Power Dynamics
The study indicates that Trump won a larger percentage of voters who cast ballots in 2024 after skipping the 2020 election. This group supported Trump over Harris by a margin of 52% to 45%.
This dynamic suggests that Trump’s campaign was successful in mobilizing new voters who had previously abstained.
Outside Impact
The broader implications of this study are significant for future elections. It suggests that the traditional Democratic advantage among non-voters may be eroding, and that Republican candidates can now compete more effectively in diverse voter coalitions.
This shift could influence campaign strategies and voter outreach efforts in upcoming elections.
Future Forces
Looking ahead, the 2024 election results and the Pew study’s findings will likely shape political strategies for both parties. Campaigns may focus more on mobilizing diverse voter groups and addressing the concerns of non-voters.
The study also highlights the importance of understanding voting patterns and turnout in predicting election outcomes.
Data Points
- 2020: Non-voters preferred Biden over Trump by 11 points.
- 2024: Non-voters were almost evenly split between Trump and Harris.
- 48%: Trump’s support among Latino voters in 2024.
- 52% to 45%: Trump’s margin over Harris among voters who skipped the 2020 election but voted in 2024.
The 2024 presidential election has set a new precedent in voter turnout and coalition dynamics. As the political landscape continues to evolve, understanding these shifts will be crucial for both parties in future elections.
