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- Despite President Trump’s recent executive orders targeting clean energy, the U.S. clean-energy industry continues to grow.
- Renewable energy capacity, particularly solar and wind, is expected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2026.
- Industry analysts and executives remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of clean energy despite current challenges.
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Essential Context
The U.S. clean-energy industry is experiencing robust growth, driven by record investments and demand for clean energy. However, President Trump’s recent executive orders have introduced significant challenges, including the withdrawal of areas from wind energy leasing and a pause on the disbursement of funds from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).
Core Players
- President Trump – Issued executive orders impacting clean energy policies.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – Forecasts continued growth in renewable energy.
- Clean energy industry executives and analysts – Remain optimistic about long-term growth.
- Cleantech manufacturing, AI, and carbon industries – Driving demand for clean energy.
Key Numbers
- 153.8 GW – Expected wind capacity by the end of 2024, up by 6.5 GW from 2023.
- 128.2 GW – Expected solar capacity by the end of 2024, up by a record-breaking 38.4 GW.
- 30.9 GW – Expected battery storage capacity by the end of 2024, up by a record-breaking 14.9 GW.
- 12% – Expected increase in renewable power generation in 2025 to 1,058 billion kWh.
- 26 GW – Solar capacity additions expected in 2025.
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The Catalyst
President Trump’s executive orders, effective January 21, 2025, have significantly impacted the clean-energy sector. These orders include the withdrawal of all areas within the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) from wind energy leasing and a pause on the disbursement of funds from the IRA and IIJA.
Despite these challenges, the clean-energy industry continues to grow, driven by strong demand and technological advancements.
Inside Forces
The clean-energy industry has been buoyed by record public and private investment in clean energy. Utility-scale solar and wind capacity additions accounted for nearly 90% of all new builds and expansions in the first nine months of 2024.
The industry is also driven by the demand from cleantech manufacturing, AI, and carbon industries, which are expected to add significant power demand by 2030.
Power Dynamics
President Trump’s administration has significant influence over energy policy, and the recent executive orders reflect a shift towards supporting fossil fuel production. However, the industry’s momentum and the support from state and local policies may mitigate some of the federal actions.
The Inflation Reduction Act, despite the pause in fund disbursement, has already spurred significant investment in clean energy, and some of its provisions continue to support the industry.
Outside Impact
The growth in clean energy has broader implications for the U.S. economy and global leadership. Investing in clean energy is crucial for meeting rising electricity demand, particularly from data centers powering generative AI systems.
Domestic manufacturing of clean energy technologies is also on the rise, enhancing U.S. competitiveness and reducing reliance on imports.
Future Forces
Looking ahead, the clean-energy industry is expected to continue growing, with the EIA forecasting a 12% increase in renewable power generation in 2025 and an 8% increase in 2026.
Solar capacity additions are projected to be 26 GW in 2025 and 22 GW in 2026, while wind capacity is expected to increase by around 8 GW in 2025 and 9 GW in 2026.
Data Points
- January 20, 2025 – President Trump’s executive orders take effect.
- 2024 – Record-breaking year for solar and battery storage capacity additions.
- 2030 – Expected additional demand of over 57 GW from cleantech manufacturing, AI, and carbon industries.
- 4.9% – Growth rate of clean energy jobs in 2023.
- 149,000 – New clean energy jobs added in 2023.
The ongoing growth of the U.S. clean-energy industry, despite current challenges, underscores its resilience and the strong demand for clean energy. As the industry continues to evolve, it is likely to play a critical role in shaping the U.S. energy landscape and contributing to global leadership in clean energy.
