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- Ukraine exports 13 million tons of grain.
- Wheat exports capped at 16.2 million tons.
- Grain exports up from last year’s 8.3 million tons.
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Essential Context
Ukraine’s grain exports have surged in the early months of the 2024/25 season, with the country shipping 13 million tonnes of grain by October 21, 2024.
This figure exceeds last year’s exports of 8.3 million tonnes recorded on October 23, 2023, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture.
Core Players
- Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture
- Ukrainian farm associations
- International grain traders
Key Numbers
- 13 million tonnes – Total grain exports as of October 21, 2024
- 7.2 million tonnes – Wheat exports so far this season
- 3.8 million tonnes – Corn exports so far this season
- 1.7 million tonnes – Barley exports so far this season
- 16.2 million tonnes – Capped wheat export quota for 2024/25 season
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The Catalyst
The significant increase in grain exports is driven by Ukraine’s ability to maintain an independent export corridor out of its Odesa region ports despite ongoing conflict.
Inside Forces
Ukraine’s government and farm associations have agreed to limit wheat exports to 16.2 million tons to ensure sufficient domestic supplies.
Traders have already used 44.5% of the agreed wheat export quota, indicating high demand for Ukrainian wheat.
Power Dynamics
The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture plays a crucial role in regulating grain exports and ensuring food security.
Farm associations influence export policies to balance domestic and international market needs.
Outside Impact
Ukraine’s grain exports are vital for global food security, especially given the country’s historical role as a major grain supplier.
The ongoing conflict and infrastructure challenges have not significantly hindered Ukraine’s ability to export grains, maintaining stability in global markets.
Future Forces
Despite current successes, Ukraine faces challenges such as dry weather and production issues, which are expected to reduce the 2024 combined grain and oilseed harvest to 77 million tonnes.
The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture forecasts a decline in grain exports for the 2024-25 marketing year due to these factors.
Data Points
- October 21, 2024: Ukraine ships 13 million tonnes of grain.
- October 23, 2023: Last year’s grain exports were 8.3 million tonnes.
- 77 million tonnes: Projected combined grain and oilseed harvest for 2024.
- 51 million tonnes: Grain exports in the 2023/24 marketing season.
- 1.2 million tonnes: Ending stocks for all grains at the close of the 2023-24 marketing year.
The resilience of Ukraine’s grain exports amidst conflict and production challenges underscores the country’s critical role in global food markets and its ability to adapt to adverse conditions.
